Al,
As far as the lower end of Alabama, on the Gulf Coast:
Is there a pattern developing that you have been noticing? Waterfowl numbers on Mobile Bay & the Mobile-Tensaw River Delta have been on a long term downward trend for many years (since the 70's). No one knows why for certain. However, the creation of the Tennessee River Lakes (1930's & 40's), Alabama River lakes (1930's, 40's & 50's) and then the lakes on the Tenn-Tom Waterway in the 1970/80's created huge areas of additional wintering habitat north of us that was not there 40-100 years ago. I personally think this is the reason for the long term trend.
However, from 1997-2003 (I got down here in 1997), we had relatively large numbers of wintering ducks, mostly gadwalls, teal, ringers & bluebills. Enough cans, redheads and others to keep it interesting. From 1997-2003, killing a limit of gadwalls was almost too easy. Some days, we said the heck with gadwalls & went diver hunting, or just targeted teal. In 1999-2000 season, I killed ~90 ducks in 24 hunts, in 2000-2001, I killed 112 in 25 hunts. Thats good numbers no matter where you hunt. The next few years after that were almost as good.
But since the summer of 2003, the food supply for gadwalls & divers (submerged grassbeds) has declined significantly due to drought & hurricanes. We also had a couple of very warm winters in there. This decrease in food supply combined with warm winters seems to have altered migration patterns or birds that do show up are not sticking around. Since 2004, we have wintered a fraction of the ducks we did from 1997-2003, and an even smaller fraction of the "historical" numbers. Our grassbeds are rebounding strong and I think things will improve once this happens. But its going to take another 2-3 years to get back to the acreage of grassbeds we had in 1997.
How about the states just north of you? Dont know.
Where do your ducks normally come from? Eric answered this pretty well, mainly MS flyway with some from the Atlantic. We rarely see many mallards down here. Normally, Gadwalls, Teal, Ringers, Bluebills and Buffies are normally our top birds number wise, with a good numbers of redheads & cans, and (normally) enough wigeon & pintails to keep you on your toes.
What do the waterfowl biologists from Alabama (state and federal) have to say about this situation? On our end, in regards to the short term trend, we feel it is a combination of weather, changed migration patterns and decreased food supply, plus (for this year) the huge amount of rain & resulting floodwater habitat. This year, we have had flood water on the Mobile-Tensaw Delta almost all fall & winter and I think our puddle ducks simply spread out, with many of the places being innaccessible to all but the most died hard individuals willing to hike through swamp lands & flooded timber.
I think the long term trend is the increased habitat noted above but no one knows for sure.
How many state and national wildlife refuges you do have in your state? We one small "refuge" down here that holds a good number of ducks. However, we also have thousands of state owned & state-managed acres of land in the Mobile-Tensaw Delta. This is combination of open water, fresh & brackish marsh, swamp, timbered floodplain & clearcuts. Its all in Wildlife Management Areas and all huntable. But, as noted above, there are vast acres of flooded timber & clearcuts that are next to impossible to get too. With all the flood water this years, we could have thousands of ducks up there and no one would ever find them.
Are the other "Gulf" states having the same problems? Not that I know of, the reports I have heard out of coastal Louisiana & Texas are good. Have not heard from coastal Mississippi.