Drought, Migration and the furure of waterfowling?

B

Bill McAdam

Active member
The way I see it, the worst drought in 50 years is going to hit the duck population hard. Little water AND little food along the migration routes will be a double whammy. Fewer and weaker birds returning to the nesting areas next spring will mean less and smaller broods. I'd expect that this year's drought will have severe effects on the outlook for waterfowling at least in the short term. Anybody heard anything from wildlife biologists?
 
Seems like lots of birds breeding (but a lot less ponds), surveys this month will give us an idea as to brood habitat that remained through the summer. So there will likely still be a strong flight. Waterfowl are good about finding food sources, and weather will likely determine where they concentrate during migration. To many variables to even speculate about next spring. I think the bigger issue about next year is loss of CRP lands in the PPR (ducks need grass too for big numbers).
 
I think it is too early to say what will happen next year. If the drought breaks and we get normal precipitation during the Fall and Winter, then the impact may not be as severe and we could stil lbe looking at a good breeding season next year.
But if the drought does hold through Fall & Winter, I foresee two things:

1. This Fall's migration will bypass a lot of the MS and Central flyway, follow the main stem of the large waterways and head straight to the coast. This would be great for us on the coast but bad for anyone not on the main stem of the MS or other large rivers/waterways.

2. Drastic reductions in migration route habitat, drastic reduction in pond numbers next spring and limited breeding success on the prairies next year. We could easily slip back to a moderate framework if the drought holds.

All that said, there is another 3 months before the migration kicks off, a lot can change. Lets hope it does and y'all start getting some rainfall up north.

Down here in lower AL, MS & Panhandle FL, we have been very lucky, we've had close to normal to normal rainfall most of this year. Our grassbeds are looking fantastic and we stand to have a banner year. Area to the north of us are dry, but not as bad as the rest of the country.

Please see disclaimer below.
 
cycles are needed IMHO to keep things in check. Food sources here in dry Mo will be good with or without the skinny water. They will just sit on big water and feed on dry land. As long as the Mo. River stays open there will be ducks on it.
 
Western Canada has been very wet the last month or so. Calgary is actually green for a change. I suspect Carl is right about the migration this fall unless there is change.
 
I think Carl is right. Way too early to know anything yet.
And this might be the largest drought by area in the past 50 years but it isn't even close to the worst we have had in my 42 years.

In the short term I think things are fine. In fact it could be helpful for us this season. Wet years can be hard on hunters up here because every cornfield will have a pond in it. A few of the divers I might worry about food at times but not the puddle ducks. Ducks will find food, water to rest on and habitat next spring are the worry.


This could all change in a month or two. We had several winters in a row with record cold and snow. Last year it was a record too but for so little snow and warm temps. It seems like the northern plains have been in a boom or bust pattern when it comes to precipitation over the past 5 or 6 years. This bust just hit at a really bad time. Going through june and july with a couple tenths here and there is tough after how dry last fall/winter was. In fact when the counts were going on this year the precipitation levels for this year were right on average for most of SD. The ponds lost in this years counts were all lost last fall and winter.


I've also seen that we are heading into a El Nino. Typically things can be drier here in an El Nino year but this could also be good as anything that gives a jolt to the jet stream can get the rain going again.


I say if you can find water just worry about getting out and hunting a very healthy population this season. If this winter is snow free again it won't matter what is done the population will drop. No ponds no ducks.


I'm a little hopeful that this will scare a few farmers into keeping land in CRP. I had just heard that there are enough funds to keep SD at a level the biologists think would be OK but that there may not be the farmers willing to put land into it. Now if it could only stop the tiling... I bet quite a few fields would have been better off this year without it.


Tim
 
And y'all down there in New Orleans are sure getting the water today!
Its been raining off & on here in Mobile for the last 24 hours, probably got over an 1" since yesterday morning..
 
Carl,
One of the biologists that I know who works for Bosque del Apache NWR has this for a job title: Manager of Arid Wetlands. ( I find this title extremely unique) At least the ducks and geese will have a place to come to if things turn ugly. Since the farmers are not allowed to use water after October 31st, that frees it up for being used on the refuge if it rains/snows in the southern Rockies of CO and the northern Rockies of NM.
Al
 
Interesting, Al. I was going to ask how the conditions we are seeing this summer are affecting the Bosque. This whole arena of the management of arid & semi-arid wetlands is not something to be taken lightly. Did a Google search so I could better understand what is involved.

It's good to see that the NWR powers-that-be are forward thinking enough to try and devise forward thinking strategies to allow all stakeholders to be regulated as well as served with regards to water....... even though there must be constant conflict over who's interests need to be served first.

Sounds like the manager of arid wetlands guy would be a good guy to know.
 
Its really interesting, here where I am water levels are higher then normal. I know if I travel 100 miles down into Wisconsin they are in drought but to look around here things are lush, ponds are full and lots of broods of ducks are growing up. It makes you realize that there are going to be food and water sources for the ducks this fall even if they are not the traditional locations.
 
Well said, Brandon. That made me think of one particular specie of duck, the pintail. The studies done on them suggest that if the ponds are there, they will stop in the Dakotas to set the stage for nesting---if not, they fly farther north into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. If some of that is dry it is not beyond them to travel to Alaska/Japan.
Other studies of pintails that have migrated to the Gulf shore area have shown that when it came time to eat, they wouldn't hesitate flying to the rice fields of Arkansas and then going back to the Gulf.
I think we are finding out more and more about the abilities of birds and animals to try and cope with the environment.
With all that being said it made me think of the hunk of glacier in Greenland that broke away within the past couple of days. It is larger than Manhattan Island. Amazing what happens when the Earth's climate rises.
Al
 
A summer drought can have a beneficial effect on fall and winter habitat. Draw downs in ponds expose normally flooded portions and that helps renew the growth in those areas. Of course, you need some fall rains to fill them back up.
 
A summer drought can have a beneficial effect on fall and winter habitat. Draw downs in ponds expose normally flooded portions and that helps renew the growth in those areas. Of course, you need some fall rains to fill them back up.
Click to expand...


I definately agree, having short-term drought is actually "good" for pothole type wetlands, if tends to rejuvenate them. But long term drought sucks!
 
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