What has happened to the Scaup numbers!

J

John Unruh

Active member
This is a puzzling ? to me & I'm sure many others. What has happened to the Scaup . there was a day when I could go to Lake Ontario close to home & see thousands of bluebills get up every time a ship left the canal heading out in the lake , today I,m hard pressed to see a small flock of blues all fall in this area,Lake erie in the niagara area has some flights that are respectable but nowhere near of yesteryear.There was talk about Scaup eating zebra mussels therefore sterilizing the hatch, but after having the opportunity to talk to 2 biologists about this theory they tell me inconclusive ,not enough money for research!I,m not reading as much today about what is happening either ,I sure hope their is some positive results in the near future , I would hate to think of no bluebills buzzing the decoys for future waterfowlers, what do you all say?
 
The long term trend is down, but the trend the last 10 years has been clearly upward.
We used to winter a lot more scaup than we do now. It used to be easy to kill a full limit (6) when it was still 6. Then from 2007 to 2014, they just didn't show up in very good numbers and we were happy when we even saw them.
This year that changed. We had very good numbers of both lesser and greater scaup this year. It was nice to see rafts of hundreds of them out on the bay late in the season.

My understanding is that the zebra mussel connection to the population drop has not held up. My understanding of the couple of papers I read is that it appears the hens clear the selenium out of their systems on the migration back north and it didn't appear to be causing a drop in fecundity.
The zebra mussels do appear to be causing many scaup to winter farther north than they used too, with an ample food supply, why come south???

My bet is that the drop in population was caused by multiple factors (overharvest during 10 bird limit times, the drought in the early 80s, habitat changes, etc..) and its just taking a long time for the pendulum to swing back up and the population to recover.
That combined with migration patterns becoming more unpredictable as our weather patterns changed has made it frustrating for us hunters.

The red is the approximate trend from 1979 to 2005, green is approximate trend from 2005 to 2015. This is an estimate, I admit didn't run a "real" statistical analysis.
[inline ScaupTrend1955-2015A.jpg ]

View attachment ScaupTrend1955-2015A.jpg
 
My opinion is that Zeebra Mussels are the number one factor in the change in Scaup distribution during the fall and winter, followed by changing winter / freeze up conditions.

As for population decline, I would say the increasingly degraded and disappearing spring migration habitat leads to hens returning to the breeding grounds in poorer condition and failing to reproduce as successfully as they did before.
 
Interesting Carl , I certainly agree with some of what you have mentioned,habitat changes, drought,but migration patterns is very interesting because I can set my time table to the mid October if not earlier when the first flight of bluebills will show up here,regardless of how warm the temperature is then the next flight seems to change regarding the weather, what I'm having a hard time understanding is how Lake Ontario where we are is absolutely without any numbers of Scaup yet Lake Erie which is say 40 minutes to the south of us has some alright numbers of Scaup. Really strange? I certainly agree the numbers will take a long time to recover !
 
Nick That makes a whole lot of sense on population decline I guess I,m saying how do we help them recover? This will be a monumental task.
 
Local variation is very hard to understand! Last year when we literally had NO bluebills, areas in south Louisiana, which is basically just a short flight for a duck, had literally hundreds of thousands.
Very frustrating!
 
Hi John, This is an area rich in bluebill history and duck hunting on the lake would mean bluebills. Numbers had been very good up until the last 2 years here. We get those mid October lessers but they leave too quickly so I think it's just a migration thing and not a population problem.
The only thing I know for sure is the zebra mussels improved the taste of the birds HERE!! JMO, John
 
Two things we can do:
  1. Mange harvest through the lower limits (which may not be a significant help but cant hurt)
  2. Habitat protection/restoration, especially on the areas of the PPR that used to have significant numbers of nesting lessers.
 
How many members here remember the Bonus Scaup Season? When many a waterfowl hunter thought they were ***** ducks, and few hunters targeted them. Those were the days, and I loved em. The birds, the hunts and feasting on them later.

The last massive amount of Blue Bills I saw, was on Devils Lake, ND. It reminded me of the Bonus Scaup days. I did way more watchin' than chootin', as I've had more than my share. Made me smile.

I feel they were a duck always taken for granted, by all concerned. Until their numbers began to plummet. By then it was to late. Hopefully they will return to past populations and get the respect that they deserve. Seems like everything else... No one missed them, till they were gone.
 
I'm having a hard time understanding is how Lake Ontario where we are is absolutely without any numbers of Scaup yet Lake Erie which is say 40 minutes to the south of us has some alright numbers of Scaup. Really strange?
Click to expand...

To this I would respond...
a) Habitat / Feed availability
b) Disturbance
c) Dumb Luck! One biologist (or maybe many) said... "Ducks do duck things for duck reasons and we may never understand it."
 
John,
I am just one guy what i do is practice voluntary restraint, a charge led by Delta Waterfowl.
Also their program of predator management may help.

This year while hunting my partner and i let a flock of 21 lesser scaup that swam into our decoys feed and "visit" for several minutes before swimming on unmolested.
The memory of those birds is more comforting than the harvest that could have taken place.

Incidentally i try not to shoot any hen duck, drakes don't lay eggs.

Just my thoughts and actions.
Bill.
 
I must practice voluntary restraint too.... Or is it. Not having birds in the blocks.... Or this year... Missing and educating them..... Lol

The fact is... Hunting has very impact on overall population .... According to the experts...
 
Ahh, compensatory vs. additive mortality, a long debated topic among waterfowl (and other) biologists.

I hear that some are starting to see evidence that hunting mortality is additive for some species (ie: sea ducks).
And possible partially additive for scaup.

Either way, voluntarily letting hens pass certainly can't hurt the population.
 
Well After reading all the posts so far it's quite apparent that we all have much in common of our love of duck hunting,Amen! I believe as we get older we realize the importance of restraint of say shooting hens,we don,t need to shoot a limit all the time, the importance of predator control to protect nesting birds & personally I think one of the most important is to teach the next generation of waterfowlers it's not all about killing duck videos to show how great a hunter you are,sorry if I,m getting off track a bit, but it frosts my butt ,there I feel better now.Keep this post going fellas it's a great read & feeling.
All the Best, John
 
Whenever I am in a meeting and someone refers to me as the "technical expert" on a topic, I shudder....
 
Hey Carl,
I am glad you took my comment in the vain it was intended,humor.

Having spent many years in law enforcement humor of any stripe was the norm,even if a bit coarse. Something to chuckle about.
It seems i can't get away from it.
 
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