Climate Change vs. Waterfowl Migration

Has anyone considered the facts of much degraded habitat, plus the facts the birds get the hell scared out of them with all the early goose seasons, "Conservation" seasons, electronic callers, mojo/robo decoys, so on and so forth. If anyone thinks Increased Pressure has NO affect on the birds, and migration influences, they have not studied the birds we hunt. They ARE extremely sensitive to hunting pressure. There are fewer places for them to live, rest and feed, and all those places attract many many hunters when the populations are high as they are now. If yer out there every season for 50 years, ya don't need a darn graph to show you things have Changed, and not all because of Climate Change.
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Vince I agree,that early Sept Conservation order in NY raised hell in the Marshes, shooting 1/2 after sunset at Geese coming in to roost is crazy. The ducks are coming back at the same time and bang off they go to town to sit & shzt in some park .

But I think I'm getting off topic..

Tod, everyone knows the earth is flat.
 
I believe that biologists have determined that the length of daylight is the triggering mechanism to start a bird on it's migration path.
What routes they follow, if they make short stops, or deviate from their established routes is affected by weather, food availability, and pressure from man made and natural causes along the way.
I wish that Brad B would weigh in on this......he's got a lot of professional and personal knowledge on this issue.


Gibby
 


Tod, everyone knows the earth is flat.
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You got that right, every damn place I've checked, flat ground registers as level with my spirit level - North to South and East to West,. So how can the earth be round if the level says it is flat everywhere? Damn round-earthers are just trying to scare us. Even google earth pretends the earth is round, until you zoom in real close - then you can see it is really flat, not round.
 
Tod, everyone knows the earth is flat.
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You got that right, every damn place I've checked, flat ground registers as level with my spirit level - North to South and East to West,. So how can the earth be round if the level says it is flat everywhere? Damn round-earthers are just trying to scare us. Even google earth pretends the earth is round, until you zoom in real close - then you can see it is really flat, not round.[/QUOTE].
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Apparently I pissed Tod off.I didn't mean ANY disrespect in my last or any other post.I was just being my sarcastic self.I thought if anyone would see that it would be you. Sorry Tod
 
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I'm hesitant to weigh in here. First, I'm just as sarcastic as Todd and Bob, so I may blow things all to hell. I promise to keep my snarky comments to myself and stay focused on the facts in front of us, and the sources for those facts.

Second, comparisons of people's views of climate change to abortion are not far off. It's become a defining issue for both "progressives" and "conservatives" in a way in which activists find it much easier to shout slogans at each other than to thoughtfully consider opposing views. Wading into such debates is usually not a good idea.

But, this issue is important. I don't know about important to the planet--I don't have the training to assess that. But it's important to me.

I'm a guy who loves brook trout that depend on summer water temperatures that stay below 65 degrees, and who loves hunting for ducks whose migration is tied to events like annual freeze up and thaw.

If indeed the climate is changing rapidly--and all the evidence suggests that it is, including my own observations of things like the dates on which key mayflies hatch on my favorite ponds, and whether the peak of the whistler migration comes before Christmas when duck season is still open or after the New Year when it's closed--it will matter to me.

Maine without July brook trout and early December whistlers will be a different place than the one I grew up in. I don't want to live in a place that has the climate of Connecticut or New Jersey or--as one assessment I read suggested--of northern Virginia. I've got nothing against those places, but I chose the climate I live in, and I don't want my kids or grandkids to have a different one.


So it's important to me to assess the evidence about whether climate change is caused by humans or not, and about whether any changes we might make--expensive as they may turn out to be--might make a difference.

And if the discussion here is any indication, on two key questions, I think good evidence has been provided about two important questions: Is our climate getting warmer? and Is it likely caused or made significantly worse by human carbon emissions?

Tod--with whom I often disagree--has provided extensive evidence from peer-reviewed scientific journals. More importantly, when some of what he's presented has been questioned, he's come back with more information--also from peer-reviewed journals. Bob's information was (according to Tod, and Bob does not dispute this) from a website that appears to me to be devoted to Conservative politics.

When questioned, rather than come up with more and better documented information, Bob (and others) have come back with Al Gore and NASA jokes, or vague statements about how scientists can't be trusted. (For the record, while recognizing that nobody is infallible, and as someone who came of age with the Challenger disaster, I consider NASA scientists to be as close as we can get to impartial experts. And anyone who believes they are publishing evidence for man-made climate change related to carbon emissions because that's politically popular is nuts.)

Anyway, it's clear to me where the balance of the evidence lies on whether the earth is warming and whether that's related to human use of carbon fuels.

As for the more important question--Can we do anything to slow or reverse this trend, and if so what is it and how much will it cost?--I really don't know. We never actually get to that conversation, because a whole lot of people are willing to ignore what seems to me to be overwhelming evidence on the first two questions.

This is not unique to climate change. It's a state of denial that we passed through with regard to cigarettes and lung cancer; with the need for seat belts in automobiles; with the relationship between drunk driving and automobile accidents; with respect to water pollution before passage of the Clean Water Act; with respect to air pollution before passage of the Clean Air Act; with respect to DDT and its impacts on raptors; etc.

The question to me is whether we'll move past the denial phase and into the "what do we do about it" phase before it's too late. With the Clean Air Act, we lost a lot of trout ponds to acid rain before we got it right, but we're not losing them anymore. My grandfather used to set the Androscoggin River on fire for pep rallies before football games at Bates College. I swim in that section of the river now, and it's one of the nicest float trips in Maine.

Here's hoping it's not too late on climate change either. I'd hate to tell the next generation that if they want to know what Maine was like in the 1980's, they need to move to Newfoundland.
 
Tod, everyone knows the earth is flat.
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You got that right, every damn place I've checked, flat ground registers as level with my spirit level - North to South and East to West,. So how can the earth be round if the level says it is flat everywhere? Damn round-earthers are just trying to scare us. Even google earth pretends the earth is round, until you zoom in real close - then you can see it is really flat, not round.
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Apparently I pissed Tod off.I didn't mean ANY disrespect in my last or any other post.I was just being my sarcastic self.I thought if anyone would see that it would be you. Sorry Tod
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I'm fine Bob, as I said in my pm, we have agreed to disagree in the past - not a problem and thanks for the clarification. I was (believe it or not) outside mowing, making dinner and relaxing after a long day cleaning the shop and posting on the internet, so I didn't respond. Lawn is mowed, dinner was damn fine (spring peas with clam sauce), dessert even better (shortcake) and I'm going to bed.
 
I have been a member for a few years and try to check in daily. In my time here I have gained new insight in boat building techniques and decoy carving. I seldom post . Tod, I know you don't really care, but you are the type of intellectual asshole that makes others want to smack you with a firm backhand.
 
I have been a member for a few years and try to check in daily. In my time here I have gained new insight in boat building techniques and decoy carving. I seldom post . Tod, I know you don't really care, but you are the type of intellectual asshole that makes others want to smack you with a firm backhand.
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Dave, This statement speaks volumes about you and none of it is good. You should go back to seldom posting. Honestly, physical violence is not the answer. Science just might be whether you like it or not.
 
Well, then line me up to be smacked too please, us intellectual types apparently need to be put in our place...
 
Tod's responses to me while condescending have not been offensive.

honestly that's probably why I find them interesting.

I know questioning the scientific method with Tod listening is like poking a bear with a stick. :).

I do understand the scientific method and peer review.

Our main disagreement seems to be in the incoruptabilility of the men doing the research and review.

There is a lot of peer pressure money and politics involved. I would even credit the morality of the men involved.
science without morals can go horribly wrong..and I think many of them think a little fudging to save the planet is the higher good.

but when the "proof" hinges on a half degree centigrade over 100 years please
allow me some doubts before turning the very breath I exhale over to government control.
 
Tod's responses to me while condescending have not been offensive.

honestly that's probably why I find them interesting.

I know questioning the scientific method with Tod listening is like poking a bear with a stick. :).

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Perfectly said LOL
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Actually, Carl, the eastern seaboard is sinking. It is sinking in response to the ... last ice age! Well documented around the great lakes is the rise of the crustal plate in response to stress relief from melting of the Laurentian glaciers that created cape cod, long island, potholes etc. Less well known is that the outlying areas are sinking as the crust adjusts. Imagine, you dump your butt in the center of a standard float mat in a pool. The center of the float sinks inresponse to the load imposed, the outer edges flare upward. (You are the ice mass in this analogy). Once the load is removed, the edges subside to their previous posiition. Simple comparision, but demonstrates the loonngg term effects that climate change (always changing!) can effect. So pat explanation of sea rise are not always straightforward as they may seem.
 
Being a coastal restoration practitioner, I am up to speed on subsidence vs. sea level rise.
You are correct, parts of the coast are subsiding faster than sea level is rising, given a much faster rate of relative sea level rise. Coastal Louisiana is a classic example of this, as are parts of the Chesapeake. On the other hand, the coast in parts of Alaska are rebounding faster than sea level, resulting in relative sea level "lowering"!
But once again, the overall global trend seen in tide gages at ports around the world is that sea level over the past 100 years has risen at least 1' and the trend rate has accelerated in the last 50 years.
Here in coastal Alabama (and part of the FL Panhandle), we sit on a very stable platform called the Citronelle formation. There is little or no evidence of subsidence. We have however, had an upward tend in sea level rise over the 100 year of about 1'. This is documented in the tide gage records from Mobile State Docks, NAS Pensacola and Dauphin Island.
Anecdotal evidence from people who have owned fishing & hunting camps along our waterways back this up, old-timers here talk of places that rarely ever flooded on spring tides 50 years ago now do.
Either way, subsidence, actual sea level increases or both, its happening and we better adapt now or we will be looking at huge infrastructure issues in the future.
Ports, water treatment plants, roads, etc.., don't normally work well when flooded on every spring tide.
 
Nice read Jeff,

I have been reading this with interest. I'll say I've listened to the conservative side of this debate for a long time but as I see more and more evidence I have to agree there is more here than mother natures evolution. Todd has presented some facts that can't be over looked. For me it's much simpler. The US industry in the 70's and 80's caused acid rain that made lakes in Canada incapable of sustaining life. That was agreed in industry and the governments of the US and Canada and US industry changed it's manufacturing processes and cleaned up it's act. This of course was the beginning of out sourcing our manufacturing to other countries that do not have an EPA type body to over look their industries. Are we changing the climate on this planet? Of course we are to some degree. How much will be debated for years. All I know is I have yet another year with water at my back door in the middle of June which will leave the river devoid of food sources for the waterfowl that follow the Mississippi valley as it has the past couple of years. Many will agree the ducks just move on through or find alternate routes now that have food sources. More and more the ducks are staying in the corn fields following the geese and coming to the river only to water and rest. I believe the planet is warming based on the observation that in the 70's my family planned the annual duck assault the week of Thanks Giving. Historically the northern Mallards would start their migration the second or third week of November. Today this seems to be happening the second or third week of December. So I adapt and bow hunt more in October and November than in prior years. I just hope I'm not froze out the third week of December as was the case last year.

A shot of the river today from the chair at my desk.

View attachment 20140617_134019.jpg

And a report of why I may be seeing high water in the month of June.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2607836/Is-Chinas-smog-causing-freak-weather-WORLD-Pollution-causing-stronger-storms-increasing-rainfall-claim-scientists.html

Reminds me of the pictures of LA in the 70's! We can't put our heads in the sand hoping it will pass. No matter how little or how much we are contributing we need to address the pollution that is causing climate change for our kids and their grandkids.
 
Tod's responses to me while condescending have not been offensive.

honestly that's probably why I find them interesting.

I know questioning the scientific method with Tod listening is like poking a bear with a stick. :).

I do understand the scientific method and peer review.

Our main disagreement seems to be in the incoruptabilility of the men doing the research and review.

There is a lot of peer pressure money and politics involved. I would even credit the morality of the men involved.
science without morals can go horribly wrong..and I think many of them think a little fudging to save the planet is the higher good.

but when the "proof" hinges on a half degree centigrade over 100 years please
allow me some doubts before turning the very breath I exhale over to government control.
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Tell me Mike how the peer review process works.
 
After close to 50 years of anticipating the migration and chasing the ducks, I have no doubt there has been a move to later in the year, as well as a shift in the birds feeding patterns/areas. And while I find it hard to accept that the equipment utilized for temperature measurement over the last 150+ years can accurately document a 0.5 degree C increase in global temperature increase, the changes in my lifetime are difficult to ignore. Sea level up against fixed points/structures I have watched for years, warmer water temps and earlier arrival/later departure of warm water fish, warmer summers and milder winters with a curious shift to cool springs. I think the warming is real.
What bothers me is that we in the US will punish ourselves with carbon-emission regulations, prices increase while our economy staggers...at the same time the rest of the world, India and China in particular redouble their efforts to increase economic production with no limit on carbon emission. Those countries don't care, they are not going to reduce emissions, and we are sacrificing our way of life, for virtually no gain (reduction) in emission.
 
I have been a member for a few years and try to check in daily. In my time here I have gained new insight in boat building techniques and decoy carving. I seldom post . Tod, I know you don't really care, but you are the type of intellectual asshole that makes others want to smack you with a firm backhand.
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So, Dave, how do you feel about climate change? You been reading the most recent IPCC report and got some feelings to share, we know how you feel about me, but what about the topic at hand?

T
 

Tell me mike how the peer review process works

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Don't you know?......just kidding.

Rather than me tell you what I know about the peer review process and have you pick apart the details I'll just say that I understand your point.

"How dare a typical dumb ass duck hunter not believe a theory that could not be picked apart by the best minds in the field?"

I have a few questions.

Is climatology a fully mature science or is it similar to the state of physics before Einstein when most of the answer were known with just a few niggling problems with gravity.

Are all the factors and variables that affect the climate known and been taken into account?

Can you give me a 10 day weather forecast that I can rely upon?
Until then I going to assume that a lot of processes are at work that are not yet understood.
 
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Rather than me tell you what I know about the peer review process and have you pick apart the details I'll just say that I understand your point.
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No Mike, explain it. You accused a huge body of hard working people of lying to the citizens of the world. Explain the peer review process and the points at which you think it is likely that the thousands of climate scientists across the globe are cooking the books. You made the charge, now back it up with what you know. I've shown I'm willing to answer your questions fully, now it is your turn. Tod
 
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