Climate Change vs. Waterfowl Migration

Please show me incidences when downscaling models have worked.....SERDP has nervous studies when they have not worked...particularly in Alaska and the Pacific Atolls....but you are not being critical at all....you admit to flaws....but, you are willing to believe stuff in a metertological journal without evaluating it because it is peer reviewed.

Clint
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I'm a meterologist all of the sudden??? to pretend that I could critique the entire range of science is absurd. As a frequent reviewer of manuscripts within my field, I routinely turn down offers to review that are outside my range of expertise. Further, I didn't play the weather right today and I'm here on the computer and not fishing when I bet the sound is beautiful.

I am making a prediction that I'll be posting up some links soon... Ever been to featherfest? I hear they have some great speakers. Very smart speakers on a broad range of topics.
 
You are not going to randomly guess.... buy you will believe the results without any background info of skepticism.... why was this not published in a wildlife journal?


Yes, I know if you can not find a favorable outlet
....go to amore obscure one so the peer review will be different.

Clint
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Climate predictions in a wildlife journal? Or am I totally lost?
 
Yes, I know if you can not find a favorable outlet
....go to amore obscure one so the peer review will be different.

Clint
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The only paper I've ever had rejected outright, I turned it around in a journal with a higher impact factor and a much more broad readership, so my experiance is not consistant with what you assert.
 
I am impressed...sample size if 1 and you reject...I have done it and know several others who do.

You do not want to claim to be a meteriologist....so how can you evaluate the work? Have you actually read the paper...I haven't because I can not access it. You don't even seem to be aware of the downscaling problems, which is what the abstract says they used. But because it is peer-reviewed it must be right.

IMO, Brad is right, I do believe the climate is warming, but the causes are questionable...but what are the policy decisions necessary. Do we abandon low-lying coastal areas?

Clint
 
Do we abandon low-lying coastal areas?
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In some instances, sea level rise and existing topography/geography will make that decision for us and retreat from certain low-lying areas will be the only option.
In others locations, society will chose to build seawalls, dikes and other flood prevention infrastructure, ex: London, Venice, Holland & New Orleans.
But most areas, I think it will be a mix of both strategic retreat, adaptation and infrastructure.
Either way, its going to be expensive.
 
I am impressed...sample size if 1 and you reject...I have done it and know several others who do.

You do not want to claim to be a meteriologist....so how can you evaluate the work? Have you actually read the paper...I haven't because I can not access it. You don't even seem to be aware of the downscaling problems, which is what the abstract says they used. But because it is peer-reviewed it must be right.

IMO, Brad is right, I do believe the climate is warming, but the causes are questionable...but what are the policy decisions necessary. Do we abandon low-lying coastal areas?

Clint
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I'm comfortable with the paper cited because it was published by government scientists, because they are the gold standard and I want to trust my civil servants. I do have a lot of trust in the peer-review process, obviously more than you. Peer review works well in my eye and the knocks against it are minor compared to how well it works. Given that these papers are high profile and have been out for some time and there isn't a critique of their methods that I know of - that makes me more comfortable with them given they are outside my expertise. I know of few papers that no one has any concerns about. What it comes to to me is the vast quantity of papers that I've seen over the years that all point the same direction towards man-made climate change, each paper has it warts, but if all the outcomes line up there is somethign there.

I would not buy property in low lying areas, especially with the plan to pass on to future generations. Beyond that I have no suggestion - those issues are left to better minds than mine.
 
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Have you actually read the paper....if so send me a copy. I can not access it, and do not want to decide on the abstract.

Also, I believe it is a cope out to avoid commenting on policy decisions....so you want politicians interpreting science to make decisions?

Clint
 
Carl, I would say we have in some areas of Louisiana....they no longer exist. After Hurricane Rita...I was in several meetings that started with "not rebuilding IS NOT AN OPTION"...loss of tax base, etc.

How do we change that?

Clint
 
I've heard that as well, but then the whole place is underwater at high tide, there won't be much of a base left to tax.....
In human history, many large cities have been abandoned because of climate change (changes in rain patterns, loss of water supply, cooler temps, etc...). It is foolish to think that we wont have to do the same with some areas.
 
I've heard that as well, but then the whole place is underwater at high tide, there won't be much of a base left to tax.....
In human history, many large cities have been abandoned because of climate change (changes in rain patterns, loss of water supply, cooler temps, etc...). It is foolish to think that we wont have to do the same with some areas.
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we saw some of this locally on the Mississippi River during the flood of 1993.
One of the levees broke for the first time in more than 50 years.
Some of my self described environmentalists friends (mostly from out of state) didn't think the levees should be rebuilt.

personally thousands of acres of marsh in my backyard would be great.

But how do you deprive 50 farmers of their home and job, if they are willing to withstand a flood every 50 or 75 years.
This area has since produced millions of bushels of corn and provided a good living for dozens of families.

Someday this area may have to be abandoned but until then let the individuals involved make their own decisions.
 
My understanding is that much of the farmland that got flooded in '93 ended up with 4' of silt and sand on top of it and was not longer farmable.
However, my point was more to do with coastal areas where the land is now or will be open water/frequently flooded. Not non-tidal related riverine land that might get flooded every 50 years or so.
 
It is foolish to think that we wont have to do the same with some areas.
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The point I was trying to make had more to do with who the "we" in your post was going to be .
Not disagreeing with your statement.
although we do have a local officials claiming more recent flooding has been caused by climate change
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The collective "We", whether that "we" is individuals, towns, counties, states or some policy decision regarding spending of federal tax money.
But I think that the "We" as in tax payers need to decided whether or not we continue to pour federal tax dollars into areas that may be basically "un-livable" without significant expenditures.
In the case of towns along the MS River, communities decided it was cheaper and easier to relocate to higher ground than to keep rebuilding and/or enduring the risk. I think that is a good example of a win-win situation where a local decision was backed up by state and federal money.
 
I completely agree with you on the expenditure of federal tax dollars to support residents in flood prone areas.

my experience localy involved farmers who had their attempt to repair the levee with their own resources blocked by the corps of engineers.
they were told to wait months to possibly a year for the corps to fix it.
it was seen by some as an attempt to deprive them of a years income to drive them out.

they ended up ignoring the corps and had the levee fixed in a short time.
They built their own pumps and had the ground ready and houses repaired by the next spring.
I don't know if they ended up in court but they are still there and own there own property.
most of my obsession with this thread stems from my distrust of the motives of many in the federal government.

But even my wife says I have poor communication skills.
think I'll quit ranting and look for some pictures to post.
 
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