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Hot off the Presses: Trend Report!!!
- Thread starter Carl
- Start date
In the traditional survey area, which includes strata 1–18, 20–50, and 75–77 (Figure 1), the total duck population estimate (excluding scoters [Melanitta spp.], eiders [Somateria spp. and Polysticta stelleri], long-tailed ducks [Clangula hyemalis], mergansers [Mergus spp. and Lophodytes cucullatus], and wood ducks [Aix sponsa]) was 49.2 ± 0.8 [SE] million birds (Figure 3, Appendix A).
This represents an 8% increase over last year’s estimate of 45.6 ± 0.7 million, and is 43% higher than the long-term averagea (1955–2013;
Table 1).
Estimated mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance was 10.9 ± 0.3 million, which was similar to the 2013 estimate, and 42% above the long-term average of 7.7 ± 0.04 million (Table 2).
Estimated abundance of gadwall (A. strepera; 3.8 ± 0.2 million) was similar to the 2013 estimate and 102% above the long-term
average (1.9 ± 0.02 million; Table 3).
The estimate for American wigeon (A. americana; 3.1 ± 0.2 million) was 18% above the 2013 estimate of 2.6 ± 0.2 million and 20% above the long-term average of 2.6 ± 0.02 million
(Table 4).
The estimated abundance of green-winged teal (A. crecca) was 3.4 ± 0.2 million, which was similar to the 2013 estimate and 69% above the long-term average (2.0 ± 0.02 million; Table 5).
The estimate forblue-winged teal (A. discors; 8.5 ± 0.5 million) was similar to the 2013 estimate and 75% above the long-term
average of 4.9 ± 0.04 million (Table 6).
Estimates of northern shovelers (A. clypeata; 5.3 ± 0.3 million) and northern pintails (A. acuta; 3.2 ± 0.2 million) were similar to the 2013 estimates and were 114% above and 20% below their long-term averages of 2.5 ± 0.02 million (Table 7) and 4.0 ± 0.04 million (Table 8),respectively.
Abundance estimates for redheads (Aythya americana; 1.3 ± 0.1 million) and canvasbacks
(Aythya valisineria; 0.7 ± 0.05 million) were similar to their 2013 estimates and were 85% and 18% above their long-term averages of 0.7 ± 0.01 million (Table 9) and 0.6 ± 0.01 million (Table 10), respectively.
Estimated abundance of scaup (A. affinis and A. marila combined; 4.6 ± 0.3 million) was similar to the 2013 estimateand similar to the long-term average of 5.0 ± 0.05 million (Table 11).
This represents an 8% increase over last year’s estimate of 45.6 ± 0.7 million, and is 43% higher than the long-term averagea (1955–2013;
Table 1).
Estimated mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) abundance was 10.9 ± 0.3 million, which was similar to the 2013 estimate, and 42% above the long-term average of 7.7 ± 0.04 million (Table 2).
Estimated abundance of gadwall (A. strepera; 3.8 ± 0.2 million) was similar to the 2013 estimate and 102% above the long-term
average (1.9 ± 0.02 million; Table 3).
The estimate for American wigeon (A. americana; 3.1 ± 0.2 million) was 18% above the 2013 estimate of 2.6 ± 0.2 million and 20% above the long-term average of 2.6 ± 0.02 million
(Table 4).
The estimated abundance of green-winged teal (A. crecca) was 3.4 ± 0.2 million, which was similar to the 2013 estimate and 69% above the long-term average (2.0 ± 0.02 million; Table 5).
The estimate forblue-winged teal (A. discors; 8.5 ± 0.5 million) was similar to the 2013 estimate and 75% above the long-term
average of 4.9 ± 0.04 million (Table 6).
Estimates of northern shovelers (A. clypeata; 5.3 ± 0.3 million) and northern pintails (A. acuta; 3.2 ± 0.2 million) were similar to the 2013 estimates and were 114% above and 20% below their long-term averages of 2.5 ± 0.02 million (Table 7) and 4.0 ± 0.04 million (Table 8),respectively.
Abundance estimates for redheads (Aythya americana; 1.3 ± 0.1 million) and canvasbacks
(Aythya valisineria; 0.7 ± 0.05 million) were similar to their 2013 estimates and were 85% and 18% above their long-term averages of 0.7 ± 0.01 million (Table 9) and 0.6 ± 0.01 million (Table 10), respectively.
Estimated abundance of scaup (A. affinis and A. marila combined; 4.6 ± 0.3 million) was similar to the 2013 estimateand similar to the long-term average of 5.0 ± 0.05 million (Table 11).
Good news overall, all ducks species are up or statistically similar to last year's numbers. Pond numbers were up as well.
Most encouraging is that the recent trend in scaup numbers (since 2006) continues to be upward. Lets hope that continues.
AHM should give us another liberal season, will have to see how the pintail, scaup and canvasback models work out.
Most encouraging is that the recent trend in scaup numbers (since 2006) continues to be upward. Lets hope that continues.
AHM should give us another liberal season, will have to see how the pintail, scaup and canvasback models work out.
Steve Sutton
Well-known member
Carl. You become the DHBP Jimmy Robinson.
Long ago I used to wait anxiously for the Sports Afield issue with Jimmy Robinsons DUCK SEASON FORECAST in it. Back the. It was the first opportunity to see the information that is now available to us on the net
I never look for it there though waiting instead for you to post a synopsis. A new Jimmy Robinson as it were.
Keep up the good work.
Steve sutton
Long ago I used to wait anxiously for the Sports Afield issue with Jimmy Robinsons DUCK SEASON FORECAST in it. Back the. It was the first opportunity to see the information that is now available to us on the net
I never look for it there though waiting instead for you to post a synopsis. A new Jimmy Robinson as it were.
Keep up the good work.
Steve sutton
Martin J. V.
Member
Thanks for sharing!
Good info, and good news! :O)
Good info, and good news! :O)
Al Hansen
Well-known member
Carl,
I was just thinking of how fortunate we all our seeing these increased numbers of breeding ducks. What is so gratifying is that for years now we have been able to shoot 6 ducks. I wonder what some of the newer duck hunters will do when that time comes (and it will) when they all of a sudden realize that they can only shoot 3 or 4 ducks because numbers have declined.
Another thing to be so thankful for is the number of ponds available for these breeding pairs. With so much grassland/nesting habitat being plowed in the past decade once again it seems that we have dodged a bullet. Keep your fingers crossed!
I would like to also like to thank all of our waterfowl biologists who play such an important part in the decision making that has to happen. We, as a group of hunters, are extremely lucky.
Al
I was just thinking of how fortunate we all our seeing these increased numbers of breeding ducks. What is so gratifying is that for years now we have been able to shoot 6 ducks. I wonder what some of the newer duck hunters will do when that time comes (and it will) when they all of a sudden realize that they can only shoot 3 or 4 ducks because numbers have declined.
Another thing to be so thankful for is the number of ponds available for these breeding pairs. With so much grassland/nesting habitat being plowed in the past decade once again it seems that we have dodged a bullet. Keep your fingers crossed!
I would like to also like to thank all of our waterfowl biologists who play such an important part in the decision making that has to happen. We, as a group of hunters, are extremely lucky.
Al
Vince Pagliaroli
Well-known member
I used to live for Jiimmy Robinson's Waterfowl Forecast, in Sports Afield as well. Dog eared that issue til the regs came out. Those were the days of lead shot, and full chokes. Like many I have been through the lean times and the fat. Short seasons, 3-4 bird limits, and stuck it out like all Waterfowl Addicts do. Learned it's all Natures balance, and my job is to stick around as long as I can to experience it.
We can plow as much as we want, if Nature wants it back she takes it. Years ago when we hunted North Dakota, it was feared that Devils Lake was going to go Dry. If you have not been there recently, check Google Earth, to See how much it has grown. Same for the places we hunted in Mantioba & Sask. These are the fat times, but the lean times will return, and those who cannot imagine life without Waterfowl & Waterfowl Hunting will stick it out, just like many of us did. For the farmers and ranchers in some areas these are not good times, and I always think about that as well. Two sides to every coin.
My guess is many members of duckboats are already sorting gear, and gettin' it ready in staging areas, cuz it's never to early to prepare...
We can plow as much as we want, if Nature wants it back she takes it. Years ago when we hunted North Dakota, it was feared that Devils Lake was going to go Dry. If you have not been there recently, check Google Earth, to See how much it has grown. Same for the places we hunted in Mantioba & Sask. These are the fat times, but the lean times will return, and those who cannot imagine life without Waterfowl & Waterfowl Hunting will stick it out, just like many of us did. For the farmers and ranchers in some areas these are not good times, and I always think about that as well. Two sides to every coin.
My guess is many members of duckboats are already sorting gear, and gettin' it ready in staging areas, cuz it's never to early to prepare...
Chris Finch
Well-known member
Vince i just washed out my scull (there was quite a bit of blood a gadwall poop in her) then took her out for some oar time. As much as i bitch about winter i already cant wait to make a hole in the ice and watch the blacks dance over a few of my corkers.
Vince Pagliaroli
Well-known member
Chris - There is no chance you will ever give up being a Waterfowler, you remind me of a much younger me. There is something very enjoyable about cleaning out yer duckboat from last season. I always like to leave some shotgun hulls and feathers. Don't be to hasty about tossing all away. I still have shotgun hulls my buddies Chessie chewed flat, brass and all... but he never put a tooth mark on a bird. Now both Jim and his dog Zack, are gone to the Happy Hunting Ground. Each time I hold one of those hulls, the magic of Being A Waterfowler is still there. If you live long enough one season flows into another.
Chris Finch
Well-known member
Its funny how the little things bring back great memories. I remember carving each decoy( i also remember Pete's expression when i tell him i'm done. haha)
everything i do no matter what is centered around ducks. Everywalk i take is just another scouting trip just like todays exploratory crabbing adventure, i always have ducks on the brain.
My fiance's pup loves black cloud shells and tears them apart.
everything i do no matter what is centered around ducks. Everywalk i take is just another scouting trip just like todays exploratory crabbing adventure, i always have ducks on the brain.
My fiance's pup loves black cloud shells and tears them apart.
Maybe not so good for those of us on the northern end of the east coast, but I can take as good as last year. Some folks up here seemed to see and take advantage of the gadwall increase, but I never saw them. I did see a lot more teal than usual, but I think that was related to a warm fall and them not having left this area as early as they usually do. I usually see a pile of them about a week before the season opens, and they are mostly gone by the opener.
Estimated abundance of American black ducks in the eastern survey area was 0.6±0.04 million which was similar to last year and the 1990–2013 average. The estimated abundance of mallards was 0.4±0.1 million, which was similar to the 2013 estimate and the 1990–2013 average. Abundance estimates of green-winged teal (0.2±0.04 million) and ring-necked ducks (0.5±0.1 million) were 19% and 22% below their 2013 estimates,and similar to their 1990–2013 averages, respectively. Abundance estimates for goldeneyes and mergansers were similar to last year’s estimates and their 1990–2013 averages (Table 13, Figure 6, Appendix B)
For those of you who like gadwalls, it should be noted that the gadwall count this year was the second highest ever recorded, just behind the record count of 1997.
Spoonies did set a new record.
The widgeon count was also way up there, not a record, but way above their LTA .
Only the 2011 redhead count was higher than this year.
And bluebills are just below their LTA and on an upward trend for the last 8 years.
Lets face it, we are living in "the good old days" of waterfowling, get out and make some memories....
Spoonies did set a new record.
The widgeon count was also way up there, not a record, but way above their LTA .
Only the 2011 redhead count was higher than this year.
And bluebills are just below their LTA and on an upward trend for the last 8 years.
Lets face it, we are living in "the good old days" of waterfowling, get out and make some memories....
BillS
Well-known member
Parts of South central ND are noticeably void of ducks. a large slough on our place should be 1-3 feet based on NWI data it is roughly 8-10 for last 10 years. Depending on topography some places in may flood new areas some just get deeper.
On side note the glacial plains of central ND is way better the good conditions as stated in the report. The counts were done before we have have all this rainfall. I see water and ducks everywhere around here right now with an especially high number of pintails. 20 miles west in the cocteau not so much. Habitat well thats another story.
On side note the glacial plains of central ND is way better the good conditions as stated in the report. The counts were done before we have have all this rainfall. I see water and ducks everywhere around here right now with an especially high number of pintails. 20 miles west in the cocteau not so much. Habitat well thats another story.
Vince Pagliaroli
Well-known member
For one and all that like to hunt ND, check out the new nonresident license increases...