Lower number of ducks

W

Worth Mathewson

Active member
In the discussion on sandhill cranes I made mention of the coming season being a good one due to the lower number of ducks. Actually, I was only half kidding. Last season, when we were told there was a very good hatch, the hunting here in western Oregon was slow at best. Or at least where I hunt. Over the years this seems to be the case. I well remember 1999, when the forecast was zillions of ducks. At a DU gathering we all sang Happy Days Are Here Again. Brad Bales, who was head of Oregon's migratory birds at the time, was quoted by several newspapers as remarking that we should all buy a lot of shells for the season. The result? A very slow season. About 3/4 the way through, Bales was asked "Where are the ducks?" Or "A duck?" He replied that they were spread out, as the winter was very wet, and there was a lot of water everywhere. And that may have well been the case. But I and others sure didn't see many ducks. So I am somewhat guarded when I read of large number of ducks expected. Maybe, with a lower number of ducks that has been forecast, the season will turn out well? Best, Worth Mathewson
 
This years count was very close to last years, statistically similar in fact:
In the traditional survey area, ..., the total duck population estimate...was 48.4 (0.8 [SE]) million birds. ​
This estimate was similar to the 2015 estimate of 49.5 (0.8 million), and is 38% higher than the long-term average (1955–2015).​
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Last year we have the best season, really the first good season, since 2004-05. It rivaled the '99-00 and '00-01 seasons down here, which were just fantastic.​
But in the end its all about the weather and water. Too little cold weather up north and even a record hatch means a dismal season down here.​
 
Many of the best seasons I've had were when duck numbers were "Down". Some of the less memorable seasons when duck numbers were "High". It's all part of the cycle and no matter what, I still go. God Willing.
 
Lucky that my "need to limit out days" are long gone and my real desire is just to have some peace and quiet and watch the dogs and younger hunters enjoy themselves. Reading the cover of a DU magazine every year brings chuckles because I just don't believe it. Every year is a banner year for this breed or the next, rarely does this prediction come true. But just like meteorologists....you are going to be right one of these days. The beauty is, they don't have to be right. "Winter storm pushed them south too fast", "The lakes never froze up north", "Zebra mussels", "Too many potholes", "Not enough potholes", "Avian Cholera". I haven't seen an average year in the past 6 years in Southern Maryland. When it's January on the mid-Atlantic and people are still shooting Woodies in northern New York, your season is pretty screwed. But yes.....I will still be out there.


Dave
 
In the years when they are predicting a great fall flight my seasons have often been poor. Local water levels and weather patterns tend to influence my success more than anything else.
 
You forgot black helicopters spreading corn in the refuges up north during November and December!
 
Carl - the black helicopters are common knowledge. I believe they are switching over to drones next year.


Dave
 
I think it's difficult to see a difference in any species especially when we see such a small fraction of the overall population. Seeing birds depends so much more on the weather, food sources, water levels and so on. If memory serves correctly wood duck numbers weren't down significantly last year and teal weren't up a tremendous amount. That being said a massive white acorn crop last year and a coastal storm that dumped nearly a foot of water a week before the opener here in jersey had the woodies so spread out that finding decent numbers of them in one area was futile. On the other hand I killed more teal than ever before in a season with Temps in the 70s through Christmas had the little guys hanging around in huge numbers till mid January.
 
I agree. My above "griping" was mostly tongue in cheek. Although the science of predicting fall flights has improved immensely, there are numerous factors which will decide whether you see ducks or not. I have had fantastic days when the conditions were ideal for sunbathing and worthless hunts when it was cold, blustery, and overall ..."ducky"! Some areas produce only in the evenings, or at low tide/high tide, with a North wind........they always keep me guessing. It sure is neat when you are on the "X"


Dave
 
I don't take much stock in what the hatch is for the reason Worth Mentioned. I also hunt western Oregon and have found that to much rain = sheet water on all the fields and the birds are spread out. Which means for somebody like me hunting public the birds are not where I can be even if there are a lot of them. For me I just look for cold weather up north coming all the way down to Oregon and not stopping at Seattle and not to much rain. A few years ago Oregon didn't have any birds but guys in northern Washington had more than they knew what to do with, Canada was frozen so birds just stopped once they hit warmer weather. I have had good years when the numbers are low. To me it has more to do with the weather between here and Alaska and timing. When there is sheet water in the fields I hunt divers now and don't bother for puddlers. Oh yeah and 1999 was the worst year in my history of duck hunting. My poor pup Lucy only retrieved few birds that year in her first season, but she got good at just hangin' out in the blind!
 
All about the weather for sure. We shot teal last day of the season here in NJ last year and I hunted in a t-shirt over the holidays... here's hoping for some more seasonable weather this fall.
 
I hunted NoDak for the first time in 1999 based on a "Fall Flight" of 100 million birds. There were birds galore in NoDak that year and hardly any posted land in NoDak back then. My how times have changed...........
 
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I'm south of you in Central CA. We had a fabulous year. Drought conditions concentrated the birds and limits were the norm. Had many days that two guys could have shot 20-30 and maybe even 40 cans! But I'm expecting a tougher year now that there is a lot more water around.
 
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