2011-12 & 2012-13 Harvest Estimates Reports
- Thread starter Carl
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Steve Seibel
Member
Okay you Connecticut guys -- Who shot those 30 "domestic mallards?"
Just wondering, though, how accurate the HIP estimates actually are ...
Just wondering, though, how accurate the HIP estimates actually are ...
Steve,
As long as you brought it up,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Kansas accounted for 159 "domestic mallards". ;>) ;>) And before you go look it up,,,,,,, Iowa tallied in with exactly ZERO domestic mallards.
It was a relief to learn that the birds I shot here in CT the last couple of years were not redheads, cans or eiders as I thought. I guess it's time to study up on my duck ID, as should all decoy manufacturers as they have been mislabeling the decoy species.
On a more serious note, where the heck did the "domestic mallard" category come from? What constitutes a domestic mallard?
On a more serious note, where the heck did the "domestic mallard" category come from? What constitutes a domestic mallard?
How about that. I'm from the only state in the entire country that kills more hen mallards than drakes. Something to be proud of.
Gotta hand it to you Louisiana boys. Nobody even comes close to your coot harvest. Somebody over at A&E needs to do a reality show about coot shooters Beau and Clovis.
Gotta hand it to you Louisiana boys. Nobody even comes close to your coot harvest. Somebody over at A&E needs to do a reality show about coot shooters Beau and Clovis.
Domestic mallards are ones that show white or other sign of being either released birds from regulated shooting clubs, waterfowl collections or hybrids common known as park ducks.
Is NJ really shooting more black ducks than mallards? If so, why are they the only state in the Atlantic flyway that seems to do so?
And does anybody really that with all the sea duck guides in Maine, not a single longtail was taken in 2012???
More importantly, what are you Georgia folks doing those 11,000 hooded mergansers? We trout fisherman can take a drake or two a year and say it's for fly tying, but are you southerners really eating them?
And did Georgia really shoot more than 200,000 wood ducks in two years? Holy cripes!
And does anybody really that with all the sea duck guides in Maine, not a single longtail was taken in 2012???
More importantly, what are you Georgia folks doing those 11,000 hooded mergansers? We trout fisherman can take a drake or two a year and say it's for fly tying, but are you southerners really eating them?
And did Georgia really shoot more than 200,000 wood ducks in two years? Holy cripes!
Steve Seibel
Member
I don't know about the rest of you, but personally speaking, my annual HIP report typically involves a somewhat less than serious conversation with some guy at the Wal-Mart sporting goods counter (sorry, WM has positioned itself to where we can't live without it). I'm not the best record-keeper in the world, so my numbers are anything but factual. Surveys done in this manner can't be called scientific. It brings to mind a professor I much admired back in journalism school who advised making up answers in response to surveys ... I can still hear him say, "If some survey ever asks you how many times a week you have sex, screw 'em up -- say FIFTY!"
Of course, this was the early '70s ... But, the bottom line as I see it is that these annual harvest reports can't be considered hard data ... It's just sad that tax money has been spent so uselessly, when federal funds could go to other purposes such as habitat improvement.
Of course, this was the early '70s ... But, the bottom line as I see it is that these annual harvest reports can't be considered hard data ... It's just sad that tax money has been spent so uselessly, when federal funds could go to other purposes such as habitat improvement.
MLBob Furia
Well-known member
Of course, I always wait with anticipation for all the surveys, but it's the "forecasts" that we're inundated with each year that are my favorites. Shoot, like we might not show up in the marsh if they're less than encouraging ;-)
Looking at the numbers in Florida, it's no wonder that Hitch sees a bazillion teal & ringers each year.
Dani, those "other" ducks in Florida must be the tree ducks you and Steve put a hurtin' on each season.
The flyway forecasts I get in my junk mail folder always remind me of this story:
A shepherd was herding his flock in a remote pasture when
suddenly a brand-new BMW advanced out of the dust cloud
towards him. The driver, a young man in a Broni suit,
Gucci shoes, Ray Ban sunglasses and YSL tie, leaned out
the window and asked the shepherd, "If I tell you exactly
how many sheep you have in your flock, will you give me
one?"
The shepherd looked at the man, then
looked at his peacefully-grazing flock and calmly
answered, "Sure." The fellow parked his car, whipped out
his notebook and connected it to a cell phone, then he
surfed to a NASA page on the Internet where he called up a
surveillance satellite system, scanned the area, and then
opened up a database and an Excel spreadsheet with complex
formulas. He sent an email on his Blackberry and, after a
few minutes, received a response.
Finally, he prints out a 150 page report on his hi-tech,
miniaturized printer then turns to the shepherd and says,
"You have exactly 1586 sheep." "That is correct; take one
of the sheep." said the shepherd. He watches the young man
select one of the animals and bundle it into his car.
Then the shepherd says: " If I can tell you exactly what
your business is, will you give me back my sheep?" "OK,
why not." answered the young man.
"Clearly, you are a consultant." said the shepherd.
"That's correct," says the man, "but how did you guess
that?"
"No guessing required." answers the shepherd. "You turned
up here although nobody called you. You want to get paid
for an answer I already knew, to a question I never asked,
and you don't know anything about my business.... Now give me
back my dog."
Looking at the numbers in Florida, it's no wonder that Hitch sees a bazillion teal & ringers each year.
Dani, those "other" ducks in Florida must be the tree ducks you and Steve put a hurtin' on each season.
The flyway forecasts I get in my junk mail folder always remind me of this story:
A shepherd was herding his flock in a remote pasture when
suddenly a brand-new BMW advanced out of the dust cloud
towards him. The driver, a young man in a Broni suit,
Gucci shoes, Ray Ban sunglasses and YSL tie, leaned out
the window and asked the shepherd, "If I tell you exactly
how many sheep you have in your flock, will you give me
one?"
The shepherd looked at the man, then
looked at his peacefully-grazing flock and calmly
answered, "Sure." The fellow parked his car, whipped out
his notebook and connected it to a cell phone, then he
surfed to a NASA page on the Internet where he called up a
surveillance satellite system, scanned the area, and then
opened up a database and an Excel spreadsheet with complex
formulas. He sent an email on his Blackberry and, after a
few minutes, received a response.
Finally, he prints out a 150 page report on his hi-tech,
miniaturized printer then turns to the shepherd and says,
"You have exactly 1586 sheep." "That is correct; take one
of the sheep." said the shepherd. He watches the young man
select one of the animals and bundle it into his car.
Then the shepherd says: " If I can tell you exactly what
your business is, will you give me back my sheep?" "OK,
why not." answered the young man.
"Clearly, you are a consultant." said the shepherd.
"That's correct," says the man, "but how did you guess
that?"
"No guessing required." answers the shepherd. "You turned
up here although nobody called you. You want to get paid
for an answer I already knew, to a question I never asked,
and you don't know anything about my business.... Now give me
back my dog."
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Bob-
I was looking at the september season....shouldn't be shooting tree ducks then....though I could see them fitting into "other"....however, FL actually according to the report harvested no ducks other than teal and woodducks during the september season.
and with the addition of the two new tree ducks to the rig, i'm hoping that Steve and I will putting quite the dent in the whistling duck population this year.
dani
I was looking at the september season....shouldn't be shooting tree ducks then....though I could see them fitting into "other"....however, FL actually according to the report harvested no ducks other than teal and woodducks during the september season.
and with the addition of the two new tree ducks to the rig, i'm hoping that Steve and I will putting quite the dent in the whistling duck population this year.
dani
Yep, sometime the numbers seem screwy.
That's statistics for you.
If the they don't happen to be at the dock when someone come in with species X and they never count them all season, then its a big zero for that year.
If they count 1, then the number gets inflated based on hunter effort, etc.. This is how they come up with Alabama killing 350 scoters in one year when our DNR guys counted maybe 10 or 20 in the whole state all season.
That's statistics for you.
If the they don't happen to be at the dock when someone come in with species X and they never count them all season, then its a big zero for that year.
If they count 1, then the number gets inflated based on hunter effort, etc.. This is how they come up with Alabama killing 350 scoters in one year when our DNR guys counted maybe 10 or 20 in the whole state all season.
I think you grossly underestimate the methodologies that go into survey sampling and statistical analysis. Additionally I think you have unrealistic expectations for accuracy and discount the utility and intended purpose of such studies. But that's just this statisticians opinion who happens to work government contracts and understands the expectation you are to demonstrate a user base, a need, and a benefit for your work while doing it with limited resources and funding.
Bob, that was a great story and too close to the truth at times.
I am on vacation at the moment but I would have responded similiar to Eric. I'll explain at a later date when I don't need to type it out on a cellphone.
