Duck Numbers Not Like I hoped

Thats what I thought.

Is the drop in harvest tracking with the drop in hunter numbers/effort?

Also, I took principles of ecology and bio statistics 30 years ago: what do the age ratios tell us about population status? Especially with Scaup?
 
This is a complex question but with the less harvest will this translate to increased numbers of waterfowl and then pressure on refugees due to loss of habitat from housing construction?

Seeing fields close to Delaware beaches transformed into housing developments which means less land for birds to forage for food. Land that had goose pits 2 years ago are now housing developments.

Rick
 
Richard

I'm not sure if I fully understand your question. Populations fluctuate for a variety of reasons but the amount and quality of habitat is probably the most important determinant of the size of populations. Loss of habitat leads to smaller populations typically due to increased competition for food and space for breeding or life functions. Crowding also leads to increased disease transmission. Waterfowl populations are actually in better shape than other types of bird because of the 75 years of habitat protection and management for waterfowl. Other type of birds are declining rapidly from habitat loss, increased use of insecticides/ herbicides, and other causes. Here is a link to some of the issues.https://www.3billionbirds.org/findings
 
Don't leave feral cats out of that equation. It is a massive problem, particularly for smaller birds that comes with heartstrings attached.
 
I'm surprised by the relatively sparse information on black ducks, and by the fact that the regulatory models for the Atlantic flyway don't even seem to consider black ducks--or mallards. Forgive a fish analogy, but it's as though east coast rules for fishing for species that run the east coast were based on mackerel, bluefin tuna, and shad, but ignored striped bass and bluefish despite that fact that most anglers focus on one or both. After decades of restrictive black duck harvest, we've seen a few years of more liberal bag limits. Based on Brad's comments I suspect this does not matter much, but it would be nice to see the data behind that conclusion (assumption?).

At least here at the north end of the US portion of the flyway, the black duck is our primary focus, and I've spent my entire waterfowling career with the assumption that we were trying to bring back an Eastern flyway where blacks return to predominance over mallards. The recent loosening of black duck bag limits while mallard limits have dropped is confusing--and the primary issue of discussion among my local waterfowling friends. Seems odd to see so little discussion of mallard and especially black ducks.
 
Good point about the black ducks Jeff. I haven't noticed an increase in the number of blacks I take since it went to two. I have frequently had additional mallard opportunities after reaching the reduced mallard limit, so fewer park ducks. And as a side note, it would be nice to never see another hybrid black duck/mallard.
 
SJ Fairbank said:
And as a side note, it would be nice to never see another hybrid black duck/mallard.

Some years in the late season on Casco Bay we see more hybrids than blacks and mallards combined. That's a bit of exaggeration, but not much. Bring on the woodies for early season!
 
I believe there are separate AHM models for black ducks and eastern mallards. Just like there is for scaup, pintails and cans. Just have to dig to find it.
 
Carl said:
I believe there are separate AHM models for black ducks and eastern mallards. Just like there is for scaup, pintails and cans. Just have to dig to find it.

I think you are correct Carl. What bothers me, and I believe Jeff as well, is that they manage the mallards to maximize population. (I'm not a mallard hater, just a black duck lover.) There is a least some evidence that more mallards runs counter to maximizing the black duck population. Between shifting bag limits, nesting habitat competition and hybridization it seems the blacks lose out.

On a positive note I will say that there are two broods of blacks and two of mallards begging for food at the dock this year so all is not lost. [smile]
 
There are a few references to black ducks in the report linked above. This excerpt seems to be the key information. My question is how that and similar information on mallards is used to adjust bag limits in the context of restoring the historic black duck/mallard balance on the East Coast. Again, it may simply be that harvest is not that important, and that changes in habitat are the bigger driver of these trends. Note the last sentence in the excerpt below, which suggests there is more to come on this in the future.


"The 2022 estimate of American black ducks in the
eastern survey area was 0.8 ? 0.09 million, which
was similar to the 2019 estimate of 0.7 ? 0.07
million and the 1998?2019 average. The black
duck estimate at the plot survey scale, which is
used for management, was 0.57 ? 0.04 million.
In addition, black duck population estimates
for northeastern states from New Hampshire
south to Virginia were also available from the
Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey. For
the northeastern states the estimate of black
ducks was 52,500, which was 26% above the
2021 estimate and 8% below the long-term (1993?
2021) average of 56,700. These northeastern
state estimates for American black ducks are
not explicitly integrated with the eastern survey
area as is done for mallards. The USFWS and
black duck joint venture are currently working
on integrating these data to derive a more
comprehensive estimate of population status."
 
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