This Statisticians Take

[Taylor Smith]

I don't really do social media and hadn't been aware of this debate. My take on this is that on the Atlantic flyway, it has to do with climate and agricultural practices. While impoundments do affect local daily movement patterns, I can't see them having anything to do with the paucity of fresh birds this year.

On the climate front, until the snow this past week, it just never got cold in this region for any length of time. Some birds were pushed down between the splits, but that was mostly it and they just hung out and became highly educated. I occasionally hunt up in Virginia, and the situation didn't seem any different there. While this year was worse than past, this isn't an unusual story since we don't really get our cold weather until the end of January or February. Were I king for a day, I would move the whole of duck season an entire month to the right. It would save on Thermacell refills at any rate.

Regarding agriculture and specifically how it related to geese, modern harvesting has become so efficient that birds either stay up north or have shifted to a different flyway altogether. 15 years ago, you used to at least see geese in the fields around Lake Mattamuskeet, but that doesn't seem to be the case any more. While the lack of SAV in the lake probably has something to do with it, I understand the situation isn't that different up on the Eastern Shore. Years ago I'd hunted geese up around Easton and I recall bag limits being at least two, now their down to one like in the NE Hunt Zone.

 

[Kevin Layne]

I don't think it matters if the flooded corn is the reason for the shortstopping or not. It's still wrong.

Is there a significant difference in food availability to the ducks in a standing cornfield vs a shredded cornfield? Yeah, shredded is a little easier for the ducks but they still get all they want in a standing cornfield. To me it's too close to baiting to be legal. Hunting a harvested cornfield is different where the ducks have to work for the food and it spreads them out more like in natural conditions. Otherwise, just let them dump truckloads of corn in the pond, what's the real difference?

I'm part of a hunting club in CA and we sold an easement to the Feds. Under the easement rules we are allowed to plant naturally occurring aquatic plants (watergrass, timothy, smartweed, etc) if needed (which almost nobody does) and manipulate water levels to grow the food crop. I support this concept nationally.

I don't support people growing an agricultural crop that produces so many more pounds of feed than a natural marsh can grow and then hoarding ducks unnaturally. If a club can pull it off with natural marsh crops them more power to them.

 

[SJ Fairbank]

I don't think it matters if the flooded corn is the reason for the shortstopping or not. It's still wrong.

Is there a significant difference in food availability to the ducks in a standing cornfield vs a shredded cornfield? Yeah, shredded is a little easier for the ducks but they still get all they want in a standing cornfield. To me it's too close to baiting to be legal. Hunting a harvested cornfield is different where the ducks have to work for the food and it spreads them out more like in natural conditions. Otherwise, just let them dump truckloads of corn in the pond, what's the real difference?

I'm part of a hunting club in CA and we sold an easement to the Feds. Under the easement rules we are allowed to plant naturally occurring aquatic plants (watergrass, timothy, smartweed, etc) if needed (which almost nobody does) and manipulate water levels to grow the food crop. I support this concept nationally.

I don't support people growing an agricultural crop that produces so many more pounds of feed than a natural marsh can grow and then hoarding ducks unnaturally. If a club can pull it off with natural marsh crops them more power to them.

Just playing devils advocate here, but isn't rice a natural marsh crop? In some areas of TX, AR and LA there are miles of rice fields. What happens when it rains for a week, or a river crests, and a cornfield floods without manipulating outlet control structures? I'm not disagreeing with your sentiment, but it's a slippery slope which is why the law permits hunting in standing flooded crops.

In the old days, many farmers spread manure in the fall. It was loaded with corn and other grain fed to the cattle, pig, chicken etc.. I have heard that some wardens interpreted it as bait, but the ones in my area did not as far as I know. The rationale was, normal agricultural practice. Nowadays liquid and pelletized fertilizers are used and are not attractive to the birds. This change, coupled with efficient mechanized harvesting, could be why flooded crops appear to concentrate the birds. The birds can still be at the same latitude in a flyway they would otherwise be based on date and weather, just not spread out.

 

[William Reinicke]

Just playing devils advocate here, but isn't rice a natural marsh crop? In some areas of TX, AR and LA there are miles of rice fields. What happens when it rains for a week, or a river crests, and a cornfield floods without manipulating outlet control structures? I'm not disagreeing with your sentiment, but it's a slippery slope which is why the law permits hunting in standing flooded crops.

In the old days, many farmers spread manure in the fall. It was loaded with corn and other grain fed to the cattle, pig, chicken etc.. I have heard that some wardens interpreted it as bait, but the ones in my area did not as far as I know. The rationale was, normal agricultural practice. Nowadays liquid and pelletized fertilizers are used and are not attractive to the birds. This change, coupled with efficient mechanized harvesting, could be why flooded crops appear to concentrate the birds. The birds can still be at the same latitude in a flyway they would otherwise be based on date and weather, just not spread out.

Agree with everything here. Ill throw one more at you, ive killed mallard over sileage piles. I thought that was sketchy for sure because it is literally a huge pile of corn placed by the farmer. The only time I had a flooded corn field was when a pipe burst and it flooded the field. It stayed flooded for the entire final 5 weeks of the season and it was LOADED with birds. I asked a game warden about both situations and he simply asked, was the water put in the field with the intention to kill birds and was the sileage put there with intention to bait the birds. No the flooding was a broke pipe accidently and the sileage is used for the cows. He said you arent baiting then, the birds found it themselves. Thats how ive always viewed that. Such a slippery slope and certainly could of gone both ways.

 

[Steven Alexander]

Otherwise, just let them dump truckloads of corn in the pond, what's the real difference?

Giant difference. I don't hunt flooded corn. Got no skin in the game. But I have been invited to hunt flooded corn units a few times, and it absolutely doesn't compare to a mountain of yellow. They make a yellow mountain at our local NWR every year. You can't run the ducks off of it. Shoot a flooded corn field every day after the ducks find it... They WILL NOT stick around after about day 4. Proper management and rest days are required to keep them coming back.

 

[Kevin Layne]

Agree with everything here. Ill throw one more at you, ive killed mallard over sileage piles. I thought that was sketchy for sure because it is literally a huge pile of corn placed by the farmer. The only time I had a flooded corn field was when a pipe burst and it flooded the field. It stayed flooded for the entire final 5 weeks of the season and it was LOADED with birds. I asked a game warden about both situations and he simply asked, was the water put in the field with the intention to kill birds and was the sileage put there with intention to bait the birds. No the flooding was a broke pipe accidently and the sileage is used for the cows. He said you arent baiting then, the birds found it themselves. Thats how ive always viewed that. Such a slippery slope and certainly could of gone both ways.

In your corn scenario, the flooding was natural and NOT intentional. I'm totally on your side. What we are talking about is different. People grow corn and intentionally flood it to kill ducks. Based on the statement from your warden it sounds like he would consider it baiting?

 

[Kevin Layne]

Giant difference. I don't hunt flooded corn. Got no skin in the game. But I have been invited to hunt flooded corn units a few times, and it absolutely doesn't compare to a mountain of yellow. They make a yellow mountain at our local NWR every year. You can't run the ducks off of it. Shoot a flooded corn field every day after the ducks find it... They WILL NOT stick around after about day 4. Proper management and rest days are required to keep them coming back.

I've got no skin in the game either. And yes, a pile of corn is better than standing corn . . . but standing corn is much better than harvested corn and better than all of the natural marsh crops. It's a slope and the line can be drawn in different places depending on perspective.

There's a guy up the road from me that bought maybe 1,000 acres and manages is with natural crops and does very well because of extremely limited hunting pressure. There's also quite a few clubs farther north that used to shoot a lot of mallards that lived on harvested corn and then went back to ponds/rivers. Now they shoot birds all season long due to flooded corn and ice eaters. 30 hunts will cost you $50,000! I'm all for capitalism and know that those with the most money will get the best shooting, but I also think that the advantages of unlimited money can be tempered somewhat for the good of all in the sport. Where that line gets drawn is open for debate. I'd just draw it a little farther down the page than you.

 

[William Reinicke]

In your corn scenario, the flooding was natural and NOT intentional. I'm totally on your side. What we are talking about is different. People grow corn and intentionally flood it to kill ducks. Based on the statement from your warden it sounds like he would consider it baiting?

Ya again, I didnt ask about that. I dont have that level of opportunity. I mean if you got the money to farm it and do what you want with it, its hard to say its baiting. These big duck clubs do just what you describe for sure. Maybe because it was intentionally farmed over the course of a year vs dropped on the ground right before the season? Because, playing devils advocate, is it baiting or is it habitat management if its grown over the course of a year?

 

[Michael McCord1]

We collectively drew the line between what is and what isn’t fair. With declining duck numbers, is the line in the right place? Or should we instead be focusing on season length or bag limits.

Something not discussed and probably not accounted for is hunter mobility. It’s my general impression that hunters from the south are increasingly willing to travel north to capture an experience or extend their season. The reality is that ducks killed in Minnesota never make it to Mississippi. Is it climate? Or are ducks that might’ve made it to southern states not making it, partially because northern hunters take (or hold) a greater percentage of the continental duck crop before those further down the line have opportunity? This is largely a question of fairness, but it’s a question nonetheless when dealing with a resource that we have agreed to manage collectively across states and even nations.

Regardless of where the lines fall, someone will have the money to move right up against it.

 

[HenryHawthorne]

We collectively drew the line between what is and what isn’t fair. With declining duck numbers, is the line in the right place? Or should we instead be focusing on season length or bag limits.

Something not discussed and probably not accounted for is hunter mobility. It’s my general impression that hunters from the south are increasingly willing to travel north to capture an experience or extend their season. The reality is that ducks killed in Minnesota never make it to Mississippi. Is it climate? Or are ducks that might’ve made it to southern states not making it, partially because northern hunters take (or hold) a greater percentage of the continental duck crop before those further down the line have opportunity? This is largely a question of fairness, but it’s a question nonetheless when dealing with a resource that we have agreed to manage collectively across states and even nations.

Regardless of where the lines fall, someone will have the money to move right up against it.

Interesting take, I would have never thought of "fairness" in this discussion - just never crossed my mind that anyone would assume/expect an even distribution just because a resource is federally managed.

I travel a long way to S Texas almost every year to hunt dove with close friends - we have good dove hunts in NC, but no where near the numbers, consistency, or duration as S Texas.

Ducks were still relatively strong in the Carolinas in my childhood, then the Atlantic Flyway really fell off for a couple decades. It got better for a while, now rough again (the southern sections, anyway). Had great few years in the Mississippi Delta when I lived there, way more ducks than I saw growing up in NC. Now that I'm retired, I do hope (plan) to hunt the upper Central and Mississippi Flyways in the next few years - have always wanted to knowing how many more birds and opportunities exist there than anywhere I've lived.

Growing up and now back in SE NC, I always felt lucky as a sportsman as we have good access to lots of variety in hunting and fishing - though it was and is far from the best spot for any one type of hunting (or fishing). I guess I just always knew there were plenty of places better for chasing particular game, so accepted the same for migratory game. Just not sure where an expectation of fairness fits into this discussion.

 

[Brad Bortner]

We collectively drew the line between what is and what isn’t fair. With declining duck numbers, is the line in the right place? Or should we instead be focusing on season length or bag limits.

Something not discussed and probably not accounted for is hunter mobility. It’s my general impression that hunters from the south are increasingly willing to travel north to capture an experience or extend their season. The reality is that ducks killed in Minnesota never make it to Mississippi. Is it climate? Or are ducks that might’ve made it to southern states not making it, partially because northern hunters take (or hold) a greater percentage of the continental duck crop before those further down the line have opportunity? This is largely a question of fairness, but it’s a question nonetheless when dealing with a resource that we have agreed to manage collectively across states and even nations.

Regardless of where the lines fall, someone will have the money to move right up against it.

I used to work with the waterfowl biologist from Indiana who pointed out that they could hunt every day of the year with a 10 duck bag limit and Indiana wouldn't be able to kill as many ducks in a full year as Louisiana or Arkansas could kill in a 40 day duck season. He always said that if you wanted to argue for fairness in number of dead ducks then every state other than Louisiana and Arkansas should have longer seasons with larger bag limits while those 2 states had short seasons and smaller bag limits. Fairness has always been interpreted in flyway management as giving hunters the same number of days to hunt and the same bag limit not the size of the pile of dead ducks.

 

[Michael McCord1]

I used to work with the waterfowl biologist from Indiana who pointed out that they could hunt every day of the year with a 10 duck bag limit and Indiana wouldn't be able to kill as many ducks in a full year as Louisiana or Arkansas could kill in a 40 day duck season. He always said that if you wanted to argue for fairness in number of dead ducks then every state other than Louisiana and Arkansas should have longer seasons with larger bag limits while those 2 states had short seasons and smaller bag limits. Fairness has always been interpreted flyway management as giving hunters the same number of days to hunt and the same bag limit not the size of the pile of dead ducks.

I’m just saying that there’s what we deem as fair between us and the ducks, fair among countries/states, and maybe even fair among hunters to consider in this conversation.

We have to acknowledge the conservation value of flooded corn. It’s not a natural wetland or bottomland forest but we have thoroughly mucked up most of what we had in the name of progress. Could we meet the duck use days needed just on moist soil plants?

 

[RM Anderson]

The reality is that ducks killed in Minnesota never make it to Mississippi.

Michael,
Trust me, there are not as many ducks killed in Minnesota as there used to be. Our flyways have shifted as well and in recent years it is so unseasonably warm that we don't see the main migration until our season has ended.
RM