Growing up in the Mississippi flyway in Western Kentucky, the migration always was dependent on four things: the ice/snow line, moon phase, open water and food. During cold winters I have journals that during cold years we would see two distinct peaks. Once in mid December or around the full moon and one at mid to late January as long as we did not have ice around the full moon. There are years I have written down in journals that in late February that we were holding more ducks than regular duck season around Valentine. This still coinciding round the full moon phase and due to years we had considerable ice in January. I firmly believe the two distributions are from the flight down and the staging back. During mild years when the ice line was held north in central Illinois as long as we had good food sources it seems the birds in large numbers stayed all season.
Since 2011 I have lived in Houston, Texas. What I thought in the Mississippi flyway has not always held true with some species of geese and ducks here in the central except weather dependent on sheer numbers. In some of these years I have hunted in temperatures with sweat pouring off my face, smelling of mosquito dope with strong numbers of snow geese, specks, teal that you get tired of seeing, pintails, and etc hunting in flip flops in November. In the actual first four seasons I have hunted, there are some migrations that seems to occur no matter the temperature or not even good north winds. These dependent events of migration always occur on the moon phase of a full moon in late October for some specks, gads, teal, with some groups of scalp and redhead. This process repeats with the same moon phase in November with snows starting to appear within the 4 days before and after the full moon phase. This phase of the moon as it occurs in December brings more birds but the January phase of the full moon every year has seemed in numbers to have the most of all species. Again I believe they are staging/fattening and about to follow the ice line north. In most cases leaving on a south wind flying several hundred miles north daily until they reach the line. Of course water and food in all months seem to be the only variable keeping birds in the area longer even late in season.
Sheer numbers: The only other variable is the factor of northern weather as I stated before. Of the last five seasons two of those years had pushed more birds south. Those years were in the record top 5 coldest in the past decade with both cold weather and heavy snow up north. The great lakes froze over 60% one year and with the other year freezing 89%. The warmer years still brought birds down but not in the same numbers. In fact northern texas, Louisiana and Arkansas seemed to be hotspots during those warm years. I have hunted an average 26 days each of the last four seasons. Most of these numbers I am about to give you are snow geese but includes about 4 to 6 days each year of early teal and extra ducks shot over white spreads. I bit the bullet on the snows goose hunting and is my new found passion outside of layout hunting. I will mix the years up and you tell me which years we had colder winters: 68, 137, 213, and 91. Weather, weather, weather....If they have no reason to leave up north the largest numbers will stay, with some that naturally go without any reason to go except instinct.. I will help you on this year's number: 9 hunts, 24 birds, 17 teal, 3 pintails, 3 snows, and 1 redhead. In the past warm years I was around this same number taking more birds between Christmas and January 24th. In cold years I taken this number in the first hunts of Sept teal season. I do not want you to think I am numbers hunter. Nor get my kicks on piling up the masses. All taken go in my belly. I just enjoy keeping a journal to remember the day and other hunters that were with me as well as all the dramatic and miserable comedic moments that occur. I have not hunted the past three weekends because of the past journal history.
So to answer your question will January weather push birds south? I firmly believe yes. Which this may also be a natural condition you may witness of birds staging south of the ice/snow line.
Regards,
Kristan
