How was everyone dealing with this virus scare?
- Thread starter jode hillman
- Start date
Bomber
Active member
Storm and I practiced our social distancing yesterday No one allowed closure than 25 yards. A total of 16 birds and 16 retrievers including a mark that was 250+ yards, a great day for an 8 moth old.View attachment IMG_4267.jpg
Vince Pagliaroli
Well-known member
RLLigman said:
Yup, very good. [smile]
VP
ken yacavone
Active member
How I'm dealing.
I have a very busy day planned tomorrow. I'm going to sort all my screws. First the wood from the machine then by size then phillips or slot. hope I can handle it all in one day. may be putting too much on me. LOL
Ken
I have a very busy day planned tomorrow. I'm going to sort all my screws. First the wood from the machine then by size then phillips or slot. hope I can handle it all in one day. may be putting too much on me. LOL
Ken
Have any of you been to a grocery store? What the hell is going on? Things were not this bad even during WW 2, when we had rationing, which I remember.
Start reading your Constitutions, because congress certainly hasn't!
On a good note, my prostate went from 100 to 40, now we can start dealing with radiation![angelic]
Start reading your Constitutions, because congress certainly hasn't!
On a good note, my prostate went from 100 to 40, now we can start dealing with radiation![angelic]
Sonny Williams
Active member
Great news cousin
Darin Clark
Active member
Well as of midnight tonight our county is officially on lockdown. No going anywhere except groceries, outside exercising etc. Game Wardens are essential employees so I?m still working. The habitat crews who work for me are off so I?m trying to keep things going myself. I?ve got several contracted invasive herbicide projects pending and it?s not clear if I can let them proceed. Spring is coming and there?s a lot of work that may not get done.
Family is doing well. Plenty of food on hand which is good, pretty skimpy at the store. My wife?s 30 hour a week job is down to about 5. We?re still allowed outside for exercise, so dog training can continue. I have lots of decoys to carve so the extra shop time is nice.
Family is doing well. Plenty of food on hand which is good, pretty skimpy at the store. My wife?s 30 hour a week job is down to about 5. We?re still allowed outside for exercise, so dog training can continue. I have lots of decoys to carve so the extra shop time is nice.
Last edited:
This is a good summary article outlining Covid-19 infections risks by organ system:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-what-coronavirus-does-to-the-body/#close
While this is quite somber and sobering, it was written well before the media hysteria cycle...
When you hear reference made to the other major zoonotic infection that cycled as a pandemic in 1917 that was a bird specific virus more virulent that the H1N1 virus's spread in the recent past. A couple of things to keep in mind: the 1917 population density was lower, diminishing rate-of-spread. It was less lethal and less virulent as well.
Contrary to the DJT messaging, the U.S.' positives summary curve's slope exceeded those of Italy and China, as of last night.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/02/here-is-what-coronavirus-does-to-the-body/#close
While this is quite somber and sobering, it was written well before the media hysteria cycle...
When you hear reference made to the other major zoonotic infection that cycled as a pandemic in 1917 that was a bird specific virus more virulent that the H1N1 virus's spread in the recent past. A couple of things to keep in mind: the 1917 population density was lower, diminishing rate-of-spread. It was less lethal and less virulent as well.
Contrary to the DJT messaging, the U.S.' positives summary curve's slope exceeded those of Italy and China, as of last night.
bob welsh
Well-known member
Been doing things in the shop like most of you. The one thing I am not doing ,after seeing the Amazon guys and UPS guys struggling, is ordering any hobby type stuff. I figure its not essential. I dont know if it is doing any good ...maybe.
Wife and I walk around the neighborhood, nice positive messages written in chalk on sidewalk everywhere.
My hands have never been this clean!
Wife and I walk around the neighborhood, nice positive messages written in chalk on sidewalk everywhere.
My hands have never been this clean!
Well as of tonight, my county is also on curfew (11pm-5am) and also on stay-at-home or shelter-at-home rules. Not sure which it is as there are definitions of both. The curfew is mostly because of the college kids out partying. We closed the beaches and bars and boat ramps because the college kids keep congregating. They were later congregating and partying in HUGE groups OUTSIDE of closed bars so even though our county has a very low number of positive cases, we are on lockdown because the kids can't quit partying. Whatever.....work, essential shopping, drs, outdoor exercise is what we are limited to. Turkey hunting is an outdoor exercise at this point IMO though because of the curfew I doubt I will be able to use my permit this year since the property is two hours away. So, looks like I'll be staying closer to home and trying to learn local woods.
I am putting together another raised bed garden so that will also keep me busy for a while. Being forced to stay at home mostly will give me chances to work on other projects though I hesitate to spend a lot of money on projects for the house. I am fortunate since I am considered essential so I will have a job and paycheck for as long as they have us working so I shouldn't need to worry about it, but I still hesitate.
I do have carvings I would like to finish though so I have those little projects I can work on!
I am putting together another raised bed garden so that will also keep me busy for a while. Being forced to stay at home mostly will give me chances to work on other projects though I hesitate to spend a lot of money on projects for the house. I am fortunate since I am considered essential so I will have a job and paycheck for as long as they have us working so I shouldn't need to worry about it, but I still hesitate.
I do have carvings I would like to finish though so I have those little projects I can work on!
Maybe some of the smart folks here can help me resolve an observation of mine with the mortality stats being reported on the coronavirus. I keep seeing rough estimates as being the deaths (d) being divided by the number of cases (N), say d/N. Let's leave case underreporting out of the discussion for the time being. With this calculation places like Italy have seen almost 10% mortality while other places like Germany are under 1% and the US is somewhere around 2%.
But why is the mortality rate being calculated this way. Shouldn't it be d/(d+s) where s is the number that survived and are now virus free? Shouldn't we only calculate the stat for completed cases? If it takes 10, 15, or more days for an infection to come to conclusion it seems like d/N grossly underestimates the mortality rate, especially early on when there are more incomplete cases than completed ones. When I took the US competed cases and deaths I get a mortality of approximately 16%. Please someone tell me I am greatly oversimplifying or making terrible assumptions and my number is grossly exaggerated.
Thanks for listening. It's bothering me.
Eric
But why is the mortality rate being calculated this way. Shouldn't it be d/(d+s) where s is the number that survived and are now virus free? Shouldn't we only calculate the stat for completed cases? If it takes 10, 15, or more days for an infection to come to conclusion it seems like d/N grossly underestimates the mortality rate, especially early on when there are more incomplete cases than completed ones. When I took the US competed cases and deaths I get a mortality of approximately 16%. Please someone tell me I am greatly oversimplifying or making terrible assumptions and my number is grossly exaggerated.
Thanks for listening. It's bothering me.
Eric
Michael McCord
Active member
Eric, I think they divide by N simply because if you divide d/d+s you will overestimate d% because s is underreported. To count as an S you would have to be hospitalized and discharged or return to the doctor for a clean bill of health after becoming an N.
And I agree, there?s definitely a time lag between s or d and N. Maybe it we should
Be calculating it N relative to the point of diagnosis? Then we?d have to adjust for how long they?d been ill before seeking care.
It?s just simpler.
And I agree, there?s definitely a time lag between s or d and N. Maybe it we should
Be calculating it N relative to the point of diagnosis? Then we?d have to adjust for how long they?d been ill before seeking care.
It?s just simpler.
Phil Nowack
Well-known member
Dani said:
Silly girl.. I have plenty.. doesn't everyone?
Michael McCord said:
You make a good point. Perhaps looking at the whole data set is problematic due to inaccuracies and a sampling strategy is needed. I suppose CDC statisticians are implementing rigorous data collection and analysis techniques as we discuss this and have a lot better handle on the numbers than what is being reported by those taking something simplistic like d/N.
Eric
Michael McCord
Active member
The other issue is availability of tests- the testing will be concentrated around urban areas with large hospitals. The surrounding rural areas get a false sense of safety because they don?t any positives like Nashville or Memphis. What they don?t know is nobody has been tested. I?d be much more interested in the % positive by county or state than the actual number.
Eric
Its related to not having a true value for the number infected. So the number you are calculating d/(d+S) is the death rate of the known infected population, not the death rate of overall population. With this disease we know there are untested infected people (asymptotic, mild cases, or whatever) so they really can't calculate the true mortality rate or even recovery rate. Was it Rumfeild or Cheney who said we have the known knowns, the known unknowns, the unknown knowns and the unknown unknowns? In this case we have known knowns-- tested dead and tested recovered but I am not sure we will ever known how many people were infected.
Its related to not having a true value for the number infected. So the number you are calculating d/(d+S) is the death rate of the known infected population, not the death rate of overall population. With this disease we know there are untested infected people (asymptotic, mild cases, or whatever) so they really can't calculate the true mortality rate or even recovery rate. Was it Rumfeild or Cheney who said we have the known knowns, the known unknowns, the unknown knowns and the unknown unknowns? In this case we have known knowns-- tested dead and tested recovered but I am not sure we will ever known how many people were infected.
Brad Bortner said:
Thanks Brad. As we kick this around more and more I'd like to see a random sample of x people (stratified on age, sex, etc) chosen and tracked and tested with precision. Maybe then we could get a estimate of this heinous virus's kill potential. Right now all I can say for certain is the estimates being reported just can't be reliable.
Eric
Last edited:
When you consider that the testing rate is still likely expanding nationally in roughly a linear fashion, with results lag times of anywhere from 3-7 days, while the virus appears to by cycling now in early log phase growth; As Brad alluded, I would place little confidence in the statistics at this point.
Dr. Fauci mentioned that viral outbreaks and expansion are beginning to show-up in the southern hemisphere, as these countries cycle into winter, indicating a seasonal pattern to Covid-19. There are likely several biotech companies that will now accelerate their efforts to develop a vaccine now that there is some evidence that this zoonotic virus will stick around, since there appears to be the potential of a long-term profit in developing a vaccine. I read an interesting piece that stated the Feds. have developed an antibody that will adhere to Covid-19 virus particles but lack enough genetically manipulated mice to determine if this antigen/antibody complex renders the virus fully inert, or whether complement fixation occurs.
Regeneron's efforts to develop an antibody infusion type treatment are beginning to identify candidates as well for production ramp-up. Penicillin had been discovered well prior WW-II's outbreak, however, the means to produce it in large quantities for broad infection treatment did not exist still. In late 1944 Merck Human Health announced that they had perfected a technique for consistent large volume production. In early 1945 Merck transferred the patent and production process to the United State Government, effectively nationalizing it, accelerating production. In later years, it oversaw the largest drug recall to-date in the pharma. industry via the voluntary withdrawal of Vioxx. Corporate ethics don't remain static through time.
Dr. Fauci mentioned that viral outbreaks and expansion are beginning to show-up in the southern hemisphere, as these countries cycle into winter, indicating a seasonal pattern to Covid-19. There are likely several biotech companies that will now accelerate their efforts to develop a vaccine now that there is some evidence that this zoonotic virus will stick around, since there appears to be the potential of a long-term profit in developing a vaccine. I read an interesting piece that stated the Feds. have developed an antibody that will adhere to Covid-19 virus particles but lack enough genetically manipulated mice to determine if this antigen/antibody complex renders the virus fully inert, or whether complement fixation occurs.
Regeneron's efforts to develop an antibody infusion type treatment are beginning to identify candidates as well for production ramp-up. Penicillin had been discovered well prior WW-II's outbreak, however, the means to produce it in large quantities for broad infection treatment did not exist still. In late 1944 Merck Human Health announced that they had perfected a technique for consistent large volume production. In early 1945 Merck transferred the patent and production process to the United State Government, effectively nationalizing it, accelerating production. In later years, it oversaw the largest drug recall to-date in the pharma. industry via the voluntary withdrawal of Vioxx. Corporate ethics don't remain static through time.